Last month, the Biden administration kicked off an ambitious nationwide initiative to tout the president’s economic record, labeling it “Bidenomics.” They are framing it as a “middle-out” and “bottom-up” approach to the economy, in direct contrast to the GOP’s longstanding philosophy of supply-side, “trickle-down” economics. 

President Joe Biden suffers from stubbornly low ratings with American voters, in terms of his overall job approval, specifically on the issue of the economy. A very high number express a desire to vote for someone other than him or Trump in 2024, which will make it difficult for him to defeat any candidate less extreme than Trump. This is why the administration feels the need for this pitch.

To be sure, this effort is a strategic gamble due, to the choppiness of the economy over the better part of the last three years. 

Yet top economists, who have for over a year been saying a recession is on the horizon, are gradually revising their estimates for the better. Fortunately for the administration, the data bear this message out, with record job growth, steadily slowing inflation, billions in new infrastructure investment and a historically fast comeback in manufacturing.

However, Biden is missing the mark by going all in on the economy. 

First, the Biden administration has been using the same economic messaging since before the midterms, with virtually no impact on his job approval rating.  

Second, simply emphasizing the economy will not resonate with voters due to the record-high inflation they have had to deal with over the last couple of years. This has raised the cost of living significantly. Real wages have fallen, which has exacerbated the financial difficulties facing working-class Americans. The rise in interest rates that inflation necessitated has also served to increase the cost of credit. Voters will not soon forget this in 2024. 

Instead, to win back moderate and independent voters in the 2024 general election, Biden would be wise to run on a centrist message highlighting his bipartisan legislative successes as well as his efforts to reduce the deficit and the national debt.  

Winning these voters will be crucial, especially if Republican primary voters manage to nominate a mainstream, moderate alternative to Donald Trump. 

Looking forward, there are signs that the economy is coming back. More than 13 million jobs have been created since Biden took office, more than twice the combined total of Trump’s first three years. Wage growth has been ticking upward, closer to keeping pace with the falling inflation rate. Further, Biden’s legislation has drawn $500 billion in new private sector manufacturing and infrastructure investment across America. This has led to an unusually fast manufacturing comeback and 800,000 new jobs in the sector. 

Nevertheless, the administration’s bullish positioning on the economy faces serious headwinds in public opinion. A general sense of uncertainty and fears of a recession remains remarkably high. Pew Research’s latest survey found 27 percent of Americans view the economy as poor, and a June Quinnipiac University poll found that just 41 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s job on the economy. 

These data points underscore why the political gamble on “Bidenomics” at this time is commendable at best, yet dangerously risky at worst. The Biden administration, and frankly the Biden campaign by extension, are betting that most of the electorate simply isn’t yet fully informed on the specific details of Biden’s economic accomplishments, particularly the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act — and that by 2024, voters may be convinced the glass is actually half-full.  

The chorus from cabinet members and other senior officials touring the country is that Biden’s mix of bipartisan legislation and executive orders is in fact delivering for middle-class Americans and standing up to corporate special interests.  

Ironically, Biden and senior administration officials touting these accomplishments are often doing so alongside Republican lawmakers who voted against these very pieces of legislation. Thus, rather than the economy being the main pitch at these events, it should be the bipartisanship Biden has fostered. 

Further, Biden’s plan to campaign on Bidenomics could backfire immensely if the economy falls into a recession. Focusing more on bipartisanship and lowering the deficit — always a popular policy with voters — will lessen the risk that the president is taking by going all in on the economy. 

Indeed, absent an economic message that incorporates his admittedly impressive legislative record or a message that persuasively touts the bipartisan support he has built around his foreign policy agenda, especially as it relates to the war in Ukraine, Biden’s only remaining option will be going fully negative against the Republicans. 

If the economy is in good shape come the summer and fall of 2024, and Biden has successfully gotten the message to the American people about his bipartisan accomplishments, he may be able to overcome the strain that inflation has put on his presidency and win reelection. However, simply touting the economy after months of soaring inflation is a strategy doomed to fail.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an advisor to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is: “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”