A new indictment of former President Trump in connection to his actions surrounding Jan. 6 could pose a real problem for his 2024 White House campaign as he faces potential criminal charges for the third time this year, some Republicans say.

Trump said Tuesday that he’s a target of a federal investigation, which generally signals an indictment is on the way.

His legal issues so far appear to have helped more than hurt him with GOP primary voters, but the piling up of legal cases could cause real problems in a general election, Republicans say. And that could lead to the reelection of President Biden, despite his troubles.

“It's hard to think this does anything to improve his numbers in a general election,” said Brian Seitchik, a Republican strategist and former Trump campaign staffer. 

Former President Donald Trump addresses the Faith and Freedom Coalition's Road to Majority conference in Washington, D.C., on Saturday, June 24, 2023.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted nearly two years after the riots at the Capitol found more than 60 percent of Americans believed Trump bore a lot or some responsibility for the events on Jan. 6. That includes many independent and moderate voters who Trump will need to win over from Biden next November.

A growing body of evidence suggests GOP candidates are not punished and are more likely to be rewarded by primary voters for embracing Trump and his rhetoric surrounding the 2020 election and the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

But GOP candidates in congressional and gubernatorial races last year who did so often cost the party in the general election. 

“For us to be a forward-looking party that’s going to be able to win a general election and nationally, we cannot deny reality,” said Alyssa Farah Griffin, a former Trump White House official who has become a prominent critic of her old boss.

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Trump's grip on the GOP primary is “ironclad,” as Seitchick described it.

A RealClearPolitics polling average showed Trump at roughly 54 percent, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 20 percent, former Vice President Mike Pence at 6 percent and all other contenders at less than 5 percent — after Trump's two previous indictments. 

“I don't think this latest indictment will have much of an impact on the primary,” Seitchick said.

Republican strategists believe Trump’s devoted base will ultimately rally around the former president no matter what, as evidenced by his boost in support following his first two indictments this year.

“We've seen Trump indicted earlier this year and seen his numbers go up unless one of the rival candidates chooses to make electability an argument,” Seitchick added. “If they continue to sort of stand in opposition to the FBI and Department of Justice, it's hard to think it would have a negative impact.”

Some Republicans say Trump’s legal problems could yet hurt him in a primary — especially if there’s a conviction.

“I think there is the potential for an awakening within the base and within the party leadership writ broadly that, you know, ‘Do we have to deal with all this drama all the time and how are we going to win an election when we're constantly litigating all of his legal battles,’” said Jason Cabel Roe, a Republican strategist who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio's (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign.

It is early in the GOP primary — there hasn’t even been a debate in the contest yet. That suggests there still could be changes in how Trump is seen by primary voters.

“I think Republican voters have kind of checked out on this whole thing — they're not really paying too close attention. I think you've got to have actual charges filed and you've got to have some trial dates set, and that's when I think things start to feel a lot more real,” said Republican strategist Keith Naughton.

Yet Trump’s rivals in the GOP primary on Tuesday largely focused on concerns about the politicization of the Justice Department.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, generally seen as Trump’s toughest GOP opponent, said in South Carolina that Trump should have stepped in more forcefully during the riots that day, but in a CNN interview later in the day said Trump should not be charged over Jan. 6. The DeSantis war room also did not amplify his initial comments from South Carolina.

DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) pointed to broader concerns that Trump’s fixation on the 2020 election, and the legal problems that have followed, will ultimately make him less electable.

“That’s why I am running,” Haley said on Fox News. “It’s because we need a new generational leader. We can’t keep dealing with this drama. We can’t keep dealing with the negativity. We can’t keep dealing with all of this.”

The UAW leadership had asked for an opportunity to brief White House senior staff on their analysis and positions related to the negotiations with the top U.S. automakers, known as the Big Three. 

When Biden learned about that meeting in the West Wing, he asked to also talk directly with Fain and the two of them had a short meeting, a White House official said.

The union's worker contracts expire in September, and Fain has warned automakers Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, formerly Chrysler, that the union is prepared to strike over negotiations about cost-of-living pay raises, pensions and other issues.

Meanwhile, the union said in May it won’t endorse Biden yet due to concerns over the White House’s focus on electric vehicles. The president has directed major funding towards a transition to EVs, building up manufacturing of parts and charging stations. 

Fain said at the time that UAW wants to see a “just transition” to EVs “where the workers who make the auto industry run aren’t left behind.” He noted that taxpayer money is being used to build up the electric vehicle industry.

The union has historically backed Democrats and endorsed Biden in 2020. Fain has made clear the union is not going to support former President Trump.

Other major unions have backed Biden's reelection bid already, including the AFL-CIO, the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and the American Federation of Teachers, among others.

“I think he should be on the stage. I want everybody on the stage that qualifies, obviously,” McDaniel told Fox News’s Steve Doocy in an interview Wednesday morning. 

Trump, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has not yet committed to the debate, which is scheduled to take place late next month in Milwaukee and air on Fox News.

“I like to debate. I probably am here because of debates. I don’t mind it at all,” Trump told Fox News’s Bret Baier in an interview last month.

“But when you’re 40 points up … Why would I let these people take shots at me?” he added, referencing polling that shows him leading in the Republican primary.

“But here’s the problem, you know that once we have the first debate, people are going to go shopping around and go, if Trump’s not there, they’re going to, you know, ‘I kind of like that person or I like that person,'” McDaniel said, noting if the former president came back to another debate, it would look like “he had to because he’s losing momentum.” 

McDaniel said she has spoken with Trump about his attendance, but did not provide further details on that conversation.

“But I do think it’s two-fold. One, short term, you want to win the nomination,” McDaniel continued. “You’ve got to get in front of those primary voters. But for me, it’s another part of it, which is if you end up getting the nomination for any of these candidates, this is an honest audience of 20 million plus.” 

McDaniel argued President Biden has the “legacy media on his side,” and not getting on the debate stage would be “more of an opportunity for Joe Biden to continue to get his message out.” 

McDaniel urged Trump to talk about what can be done under Republican leadership, “after the failure of Joe Biden,” pointing to topics including fentanyl deaths, the border and crime. 

“This is an opportunity for us to contrast our ideas versus the Democrats,” McDaniel said. “It’s not just about the primary, it’s also about the general election, because we are going to need independent voters and other to win the White House."

In order to participate in the debates, the RNC requires candidates to pledge to support the eventual GOP presidential nominee, something Trump has not promised to do. 

Trump previously said it would “depend on who the nominee is.” 

The Quinnipiac University poll found that 47 percent of respondents said they would consider voting for a third-party candidate, while another 47 percent said they would not.

Independents were much more likely than Democrats or Republicans to say they would consider voting for a candidate not running under a major party banner. While 64 percent of independents said they would consider a third-party ticket, just 35 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of Republicans said the same.

"With neither President Biden nor former President Trump knocking it out of the park on favorability, almost half of the country would consider another option,” Tim Malloy, a Quinnipiac University polling analyst, said in a press release. 

“No specific name for the candidate, no specific designation for the party, but it is a vivid indication that for many voters, the status quo is a no-go,” he added.

As the 2024 race heats up, it appears increasingly likely that the election will be a Biden-Trump rematch. Biden, who is facing challenges from two long-shot Democratic candidates, sits well ahead of both, with 71 percent support among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters, the poll found.

Trump is also the clear front-runner in a crowded Republican field, garnering 54 percent among Republican and Republican leaning voters, the poll found. His closest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, sits 29 points behind.

However, both Biden and Trump have low favorability ratings. While 40 percent of voters in the poll said they had a favorable opinion of the incumbent president, 38 percent said the same of the former president.

The poll underlines Democratic concerns that third-party candidates could help hand the election to Trump, should he win the GOP primary.

Professor and activist Cornel West has already launched his presidential bid as the Green Party candidate. And the centrist political group No Labels stoked speculation with an event in New Hampshire this week featuring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), a moderate who has refused to count out his own presidential run.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted July 13-17 with 2,056 adults and had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. The poll included 1,809 registered voters with a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.

"Joyce has delivered again and again for Manchester — her record of success speaks for itself. I know firsthand the strength and values she brings to the table, and I’m so excited to endorse her campaign for Governor of NH. Let’s goooo!!!" Healey tweeted.

Healey won her gubernatorial election against Republican Geoff Diehl in Massachusetts last November, becoming one of the first two openly lesbian women to win the governor's office. 

In a statement, Craig said she was "grateful" to have Healey's support.

“Governor Healey is a staunch advocate for women and families and I am grateful for her support in our campaign for Governor of New Hampshire. Governor Healey grew up in New Hampshire and I know she cares deeply about our state," Craig said.

“We have a chance to build a new future for New Hampshire and elect a Governor who will support local communities, strengthen public education, build affordable housing and defend reproductive rights. That’s why I’m running – to ensure everyone in our state has the opportunity to succeed, no matter where they live," she added.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) announced Wednesday he would not be seeking a fifth term after saying last month he was likely not interested in another bid. 

Craig is one of two Democrats who have formally announced a bid for the governor's mansion. Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington is also running for New Hampshire governor on the Democratic side.

Meanwhile, former state Senate president and former New Hampshire Senate candidate Chuck Morse (R) launched a bid for Sununu's seat Wednesday. Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) has suggested she could also be launching a bid soon.

"I am grateful to Governor Sununu for his hard work over the past seven years to improve our quality of life and for always fighting for all Granite Staters," she said in a statement.

"Our next Governor must be a tough and tested conservative who will fight to ensure that New Hampshire remains safe, prosperous, and free. I look forward to announcing some big news in the coming days," she added. 

— Updated at 8:16 p.m.

"After much consideration, I have decided not to run for another term as Governor in 2024. Be assured we will keep working and that the Granite State will continue to be our priority for the next 18 months," Sununu tweeted Wednesday.

Sununu said last month that he was "not leaning" toward another gubernatorial run but had not finalized his plans.

“I’ll make a firm decision this summer, not leaning towards it,” Sununu said on "The Greg Hill Show" podcast. “We just — we’re crushing it in New Hampshire, and I just believe that this isn’t a career, it’s public service.”

The New Hampshire governor, who won his fourth term last November, had been weighing a potential presidential bid but ultimately decided against it.

“When you look at what’s happening out there, you obviously have a very large field," Sununu told CNN's Dana Bash in June. "I think the former President Trump is doing much better in the polls than folks thought. And when I looked at where my voice can be, how we make the Republican Party bigger, the responsibility that I think I have in terms of focusing on the Republican Party, and ultimately focusing on the opportunities for the country.”

The state GOP lauded Sununu in a statement following the governor's announcement Wednesday.

"Beyond his policy achievements, Governor Sununu has been a unifying force for the Republican Party in our state. He supported candidates up and down the ballot to build a Republican team that cut taxes, balanced the budget year after year, and restored trust in the State Government," New Hampshire GOP Chairman Chris Ager said in a statement.

"His ability to bring people together and find practical solutions to complex challenges has been a testament to his leadership and dedication to the people of New Hampshire," Ager added.

The move was celebrated by Democrats in the state.

“This announcement today marks an inflection point for our state. We can begin to turn back the clock on the damaging policies enacted under Chris Sununu’s tenure," state Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley said in a statement. 

Biden holds a sizable 60-point lead over his closest competitor, anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who received 10 percent support in the poll. Author Marianne Williamson received only 4 percent.

Despite the incumbent's sizable lead, questions still remain over whether Biden can win the New Hampshire primary because he may not be on the ballot.

The Democratic Party named South Carolina as its first primary state for 2024, but a New Hampshire law requires it to go first nationally, creating a situation where Biden may be left off the ballot entirely. 

According to the poll, if Biden is left off the ballot, 65 percent of respondents said they would write him in anyway. Sixty-seven percent of Biden respondents said they are “definitely decided” on supporting the president.

The two primary opponents also lack in the second-choice ranking, with a plurality of voters saying they would select another candidate that isn’t on the ballot if their first choice wasn’t possible.

The poll also showed Biden as the most favorable candidate by a wide margin. Sixty-five percent of respondents said they have a favorable view of Biden, compared to 9 percent for Kennedy and 5 percent for Williamson. 

Kennedy was the most polarizing candidate, with 69 percent of respondents having an unfavorable view despite him finishing second in the poll. He has come under widespread backlash after he repeated an antisemitic conspiracy theory about COVID-19.

Kennedy's support is strongest among self-described moderates and Republicans, while Williamson is strongest among socialists, pollsters said.

In national polls, Biden holds a similarly wide lead over his primary opponents, and is neck-and-neck with Republican frontrunner former President Trump.

The poll of 743 likely Democratic voters was taken between July 13-17. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.6 percent.

President Biden’s video featuring clips from a Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) speech to tout his legislative accomplishments reached more than 30 million views in 12 hours after it was posted Tuesday evening, according to statistics first shared with The Hill.

The video received the second-highest impressions on a Biden video since he was inaugurated, only behind his reelection campaign launch video that dropped in April.

The video received more than 34 million views as of Wednesday around 10:30 a.m. and more than 10 million of those were in the first three hours since it dropped. It also received more than 200,000 shares and more than 2 million engagements as of Wednesday morning.

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Greene’s speech at Turning Point USA was intended to attack the president on policy issues. But, the Biden campaign video set the speech to uplifting music as she lists the president’s agenda and legislative priorities and compares him to former Presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and Franklin D. Roosevelt.

“I approve this message,” Biden said on Twitter, sharing the video Tuesday evening.

When it was first posted, other Democrats rallied around the video and shared it, including Gov. Gavin Newsom (Calif.) and Reps. Ilhan Omar (Minn.) and Adam Schiff (Calif.).

“Joe Biden had the largest public investment in social infrastructure and environmental programs, that is actually finishing what FDR started, that LBJ expanded on, and Joe Biden is attempting to complete,” Greene said in her speech this weekend.

“Programs to address education, medical care, urban problems, rural poverty, transportation, Medicare, Medicaid, labor unions, and he still is working on it,” she added.

During an interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt on Wednesday, Burgum was asked about his progress of receiving 40,000 unique donors needed to qualify for the Aug. 23 debate in Milwaukee. 

The Republican National Committee's (RNC) debate criteria requires candidates to have at least 40,000 unique donors, including at least 200 from 20 or more states each. Candidates must also meet certain polling and pledge requirements.

"We’ll cross 40,000 today, Hugh," Burgum said.

"But we’re not stopping. Yeah, we’re not stopping there. I mean, we know they’ll keep raising the bar. We’ve got some Biden inflation relief gift cards left to give away, so people can still go to DougBurgum.com and donate a dollar or more, and we’re happy to send them a gift card," Burgum added, referencing his fundraising strategy to hand donors $20 gift cards in exchange for $1 donations.

Should Burgum clinch the donor requirement, that would be feat for his campaign given he's been seen as one of the more longshot candidates to enter the race, though the billionaire can help self-finance his campaign.

"I am surprised, but he seems to be polling well enough to, in combination with that donor total, make the debate stage," Hewitt tweeted after his interview with Burgum.

The first GOP presidential debate is roughly one month away, and some Republican presidential contenders have turned to unconventional fundraising strategies to try to meet the RNC's donor criteria. 

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said he'd raffle off several tickets to see soccer legend Lionel Messi in Miami if they donated to his campaign while biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy said he'll give those who help fundraise for him a 10 percent stake in whatever they help bring in for his campaign.

--Updated at 11:40 a.m.

The United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry (UA), which represents about 366,000 plumbers, pipefitters and welders, announced its endorsement earlier than it announced in the 2020 cycle.

“The Biden Harris Administration has provided economic opportunity for all United Association members — meaning our members have a fair shot at working family-sustaining jobs while building the future of American infrastructure,” UA general president Mark McManus said in a statement.

The group pointed to Biden’s policies, such as replacing lead service lines, building semiconductor manufacturing facilities and permitting reform, as reasons they wanted to endorse.

UA released a nationwide ad campaign announcing the endorsement, which was backed by a nearly $1 million buy and will run nationwide for four weeks, then only in battleground states for another four weeks.

"This endorsement highlights the groundswell of support we have seen from across the organized labor movement," Julie Chávez Rodriguez, Biden-Harris 2024 campaign manager, said in a statement. "That’s because Joe Biden is the most pro-labor president in history — making historic investments in our country’s manufacturing and fighting for our workers."

Biden’s reelection campaign was endorsed by AFL-CIO in June, along with more than a dozen other unions — like the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), the American Federation of Teachers, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, National Nurses United and the American Federation of Government Employees.

The Laborers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA) also endorsed Biden earlier in June, citing the infrastructure law as an accomplishment of the administration.

“The unprecedented show of support from labor this early in the campaign unlocks the movement’s powerful organizing abilities and resources to help show how President Biden is delivering more jobs, more manufacturing, and lower costs for American families,” Rodriguez said.

But the president hasn’t had all good luck with unions this cycle. The United Auto Workers union in May said it would hold back from an endorsement, citing concerns over the White House’s focus on electric vehicles.

The nation is baking in a record heat wave that is serving as a reminder of how climate change is rapidly affecting human life — from endangering outdoor workers to raising existential questions about communities at sea level.    

Yet when it comes to the GOP presidential field, climate change is mostly shrugged off.    

None of the 11 major candidates for president is offering significant warnings about the issue. 

Most have acknowledged the existence of human-caused climate change, and some have taken action to combat it while holding lower offices. 

But most of the candidates are putting more of an emphasis on drilling for oil and natural gas than on taking steps to control emissions.  

None of them has a dedicated climate change subsection on the issues page of their campaign website — although biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s economic plan includes the bullet point “abandon the climate cult and unshackle nuclear energy” — and none of the candidates with a dedicated page for energy policy advocates scaling back fossil fuel development. 

Playing down the threat 

Former President Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, stands out from the rest of the Republican field on the issue for his active minimization of the threat of climate change.

Trump, who withdrew the United States from the Paris climate accords under which countries promised to lower emissions, has in the past acknowledged humans have played some role in changing the climate. However, he has repeatedly played down the dangers, including by misrepresenting the threat of rising sea levels and claiming without any scientific basis that climate change will reverse itself. 

Trump has vowed to aggressively expand domestic fossil fuel production and “ensure the United States is never again at the mercy of a foreign supplier of energy.”    

His campaign did not respond to a request for comment for this story.   

In addition to withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Agreement — which President Biden reentered in 2021 — Trump also staffed his former administration with climate change skeptics, including former Environmental Protection Agency Administrators Scott Pruitt and Andrew Wheeler, and unwound more than 100 existing environmental regulations while in office.  

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is behind Trump in the polls but widely seen as the second-leading candidate in the GOP field, has also minimized climate change as an issue. 

He governs a state that is on the front lines of climate change. Miami this week suffered from a historically high heat index, and it and other seaside communities face an existential threat if seas continue to rise because of climate change. 

As governor, DeSantis has taken some action to build resilience to rising sea levels in the state, creating the position of chief resilience officer and allocating hundreds of millions of dollars for flood adaptation efforts, but he has been dismissive of efforts to actively cut greenhouse gas emissions. 

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In 2021, the governor, speaking in Pinellas County, claimed climate change is frequently invoked to advance liberal priorities, saying “we’re not going to do any left-wing stuff.” 

Like DeSantis, Ramaswamy has stopped short of denying climate change but has largely discussed it in the language of the culture war rather than that of economics or policy. 

Ramaswamy, who has polled in the mid-single digits in the primary, largely built his national profile on opposition to environmental and sustainable governance (ESG), the practice of weighing environmental and climate issues, among others, in investment and financial decisions that has attracted increasing opposition from Republicans, including DeSantis.  

Ramaswamy has called fossil fuels “a requirement for human prosperity” but has also been a proponent of nuclear energy, which some consider a potentially valuable renewable energy source while others raise safety concerns about its storage. 

Asked if the candidate considers climate change a threat that requires intervention by the federal government, a spokesperson for the Ramaswamy campaign told The Hill in an email that he believes “there's a reason why climate activists are the biggest opponents of nuclear and hydroelectric energy, and why they restrict fossil fuel production in the US while shifting it to places like Russia & China: their agenda has nothing to do with ‘climate’ & everything to do with global ‘equity.’” 

Passing the buck to private enterprise 

Several of the GOP candidates, including DeSantis, have indicated that they believe efforts to combat climate change should be the purview of private industry rather than the government. 

The Florida governor’s campaign referred The Hill to comments he made in an interview with Fox News’s Stu Varney, in which DeSantis, asked directly whether he had a climate plan, said: “In Florida, we've actually had a huge reduction in emissions, but it was done through innovation. It was done through market forces, not command and control. So we'll go about that in a much different direction than Joe Biden.”

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a long shot for the Republican nomination, has made little reference to climate change on the campaign trail, but as governor made comments pointing to a similar belief. "Our power companies have voluntarily embraced sources of alternative energy without heavy-handed regulation from government,” he told Reuters in 2020. "Which indicates to me that they are following the markets. We prefer a market-driven response to government mandates."  

Similarly, Ken Farnaso, a spokesman for former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley’s campaign, told The Hill in an email she “believes that when it comes to climate change, capitalism and economic freedom aren’t the problem—they’re the solution.” 

Haley, who has garnered mid-single-digit support in polling, has backed carbon-capture technology, which sucks carbon dioxide from the air, calling it an example of “innovative ideas that actually work” in contrast to policies pursued by the Democratic Party. 

She has also pledged to roll back Biden administration energy subsidies and environmental regulations and promote domestic oil and gas production if she is elected. 

“As president, she will pursue an all-of-the-above energy policy that lowers costs for Americans," Farnaso said. 

A mixed history of climate stances 

As U.N. ambassador during the Trump administration, Haley played a key role in the former president’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, which she touts on her campaign website. The move was also enthusiastically backed by former Vice President Mike Pence and by Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who was one of its most fervent supporters in the Senate — even as both have for years acknowledged humanity’s part in changing the climate.  

Scott’s campaign did not immediately respond when asked whether he would withdraw from the agreement again if elected, but both Haley’s and Pence’s campaigns confirmed to The Hill that they would, as did Ramaswamy’s. 

Pence, who is polling in third place in the primary behind Trump and DeSantis according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, acknowledged the human role in climate change as early as 2016. In a June CNN town hall, during a period where much of the East Coast was blanketed in haze from Canadian wildfires, Pence said “clearly the climate is changing,” but not “as dramatically as the radical environmentalists like to present.” 

But in addition to backing Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, he has also been a proponent of increased oil and gas development, like most of the GOP candidates. A Pence adviser said the former vice president has not released a formal climate policy, but referred The Hill to policy proposals from his communications firm Advancing American Freedom, which call for an end to federal subsidies for “any energy source” as well as expansions of oil and gas exploration and increased exports of liquefied natural gas. 

Scott, who has also been polling in the low single digits, told the Charleston Post & Courier in 2017 that “there is no doubt” humanity has contributed to climate change, adding that he is “not living under a rock.” But along with supporting withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, Scott joined every other Republican in the Senate last year in voting against the Inflation Reduction Act, the most significant climate bill in the country’s history. 

He has also touted support for further extraction of fossil fuels in the U.S. on the campaign trail, saying in Iowa that "making sure we have the strongest excavation of our natural resources is absolutely essential to the future of our nation." At the same appearance, he also highlighted his support for biofuels. 

A spokesperson for the Scott campaign referred The Hill to Scott’s record of supporting some policies that would promote renewables in the Senate, including his backing for the nuclear production tax credit, his support for energy permitting reform plans introduced by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), and his co-sponsorship of the RISEE Act, which would distribute offshore wind revenues to states.  

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, another candidate polling in the low-single digits, also has a mixed record on the issue. He has acknowledged the existence of human-caused climate change since 2011, a period when many of his fellow Republicans outright denied its existence. However, as governor he also withdrew the Garden State from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a carbon emissions trading program involving several northeastern states that aims to cap regional carbon emissions through the issuance of tradeable carbon allowances. New Jersey rejoined RGGI in 2018 under Christie’s successor, current Gov. Phil Murphy (D).  

Christie, whose 2024 campaign has largely hinged on his willingness to criticize Trump, has made little mention of climate on the campaign trail.  

Taking a stronger stand 

Some of the long-shot candidates in the race have taken more moderate — or even relatively hawkish — stances on the issue than their opponents who are garnering more support. 

In June, for instance, former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) went further than many of his fellow candidates toward acknowledging climate change as a significant threat. Addressing the wildfire smoke that is spreading across much of the U.S., he tweeted that “reducing both the frequency of destructive wildfires and the billions of tons of carbon dioxide emissions they generate is a must to address Climate Change.” 

“When more people think Climate Change is impacting them personally, then we will see the focus required to fix it while staying energy independent,” he added. 

Hurd’s record on the issue while in office was far from aggressive, however. While he was considered a moderate member of his caucus during his six years in the House, he received a lifetime score of only 13 percent from the League of Conservation Voters for his voting record on what experts deemed important pieces of environmental legislation. 

Two other long-shot candidates, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, are the only contenders with a record of actively seeking to cut emissions. Both are currently polling close to 0 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. 

Suarez has perhaps the most aggressive record in office on climate change of any GOP candidate, setting a goal in 2020 to make the city emission-neutral by 2050. The details of his plan include converting the city’s electricity supply entirely to renewables by 2035.  

Burgum, meanwhile, has set a goal to make his state carbon-neutral by the end of the decade. North Dakota relies heavily on fossil fuel industry jobs, as the third-leading state for crude oil production, and Burgum has also heavily touted carbon-capture technology rather than phasing out the use of fossil fuels as a way to achieve carbon neutrality. 

In an email to The Hill, Suarez said he believes the party can make space for sensible climate action without accepting the Democratic Party’s framing of the issue. 

"I think my party would be wise to acknowledge that we all need to respect our environment. That our goal should be to leave a world to our children that is better than the one our parents handed us. But that doesn’t mean we have to buy into the Al Gore ‘we are all going to die’ extremism,” he said. “We should practice the three climate R’s. Be Responsible, Be Reasonable and be Rational … and understand that the environment IS the economy, it's not one or the other." 

In both agenda and rhetoric, the Republican field is in sharp contrast with Biden on climate. Biden, the far-and-away front-runner to once again claim the Democratic nomination, has called climate change “the only truly existential threat” to humanity. While he has taken several steps that have drawn criticism from climate advocates in recent months, most notable among them his approval of a major oil drilling project in Alaska, Biden has staked out an aggressive stance on the issue as president, including by championing the Inflation Reduction Act, rejoining the Paris Agreement and imposing a pause on new oil leasing on federal lands that has since been struck down by the courts. He has touted his climate-related accomplishments and goals on the 2024 campaign trail and garnered endorsements from several major environmental organizations in his reelection bid. 

On the Republican side, meanwhile, even the candidates who have acknowledged human-caused climate change as a threat or worked to fight it in the past have so far made little mention of it on the campaign trail. 

At this stage in the race, there’s little political incentive for Republicans to discuss climate change, said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist based in Florida, even if they may have an environmental record to draw on like DeSantis.  

“What you do not see from the Republicans is sort of what Republican [voters] see as a green energy assault on the economy,” O’Connell told The Hill. “You have to balance the environment with the world’s leading economy.”  

“I don’t think, necessarily, that the Republicans do the best job of making that point to the voters,” particularly those under 35, he added, and those younger voters will be a far larger problem in a general election.   

Advances in artificial intelligence technology are amplifying concerns over how campaigns spread false information, and a partisan deadlock at the Federal Election Commission (FEC) is hindering a progressive-led push to put guardrails in place. 

The FEC is facing a second request — backed by Democrats in the House and Senate — to clarify that its law on fraudulent misrepresentation applies to use of AI.

The new push comes after the commission's three Republican members defeated an initial petition led by the progressive consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Sens. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) sent the FEC’s general counsel a letter last week urging the commission to reconsider its decision, stating that it is “well within” the commission authority to issue AI regulations. 

How AI is changing the 2024 election

“As Members of Congress concerned about the ability of generative AI to significantly disrupt the integrity of our elections, we respectfully request that the FEC reconsider its decision and seek comment on whether the Commission should initiate a full rulemaking on a proposal in the Petition for Rulemaking from Public Citizen. Should you decline this request, please provide a detailed summary and justification as to why you reached that decision,” they wrote. 

The rise of AI in campaigns

Those pushing the FEC to clarify its rules to address AI say it is urgent to take action now in the lead up to the 2024 election, as the technology becomes more advanced and widespread. 

“Artificial intelligence is moving at a rapid clip," said Lisa Gilbert, executive vice president at Public Citizen. 

Pro-DeSantis group uses AI version of Trump’s voice in new ad 

Gilbert warned that AI can "create images, and audio, and video that is so real that it's very hard for the viewer to tell that it's not. And when it comes to elections, that will mean increasingly hard to unpack deepfakes which will be disseminated and could impact the election."

Some Republican presidential campaigns and super PACs are already using AI as the 2024 presidential primary heats up.

A super PAC backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) campaign used an AI-generated version of former President Trump’s voice to narrate a post he made on Truth Social. The post attacked Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), the popular governor of a state crucial to the GOP primary.

Trump had also posted an AI-generated video targeting DeSantis after the Florida governor launched his campaign. And DeSantis’s campaign released an ad that used seemingly AI-produced images of Trump embracing Anthony Fauci, the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. 

Senators grapple with response to AI after first classified briefing

Peter Loge, director of the Project on Ethics in Political Communication at George Washington University, said campaigns have always “cut and pasted” and tried to put their opponent in the “worst possible light,” but the advances in AI are making those images harder to detect and capable of being spread more widely. 

“The question is how do we answer these old questions given the new technologies, and the higher stakes on American elections. And the FEC is part of the answer, Congress is part of the answer, and political consultants and candidates have to be part of the answer,” Loge said. 

Public Citizen sent last week a second petition requesting the FEC clarify that the law against “fraudulent misrepresentation” applies to deceptive AI campaign communications. 

“This is going to have realtime consequences in 2024, and the Federal Election Commission is the agency that takes action to react to this kind of danger,” Gilbert said.

The updated request sought to address concerns raised by GOP commissioners during a June meeting when the request was shot down. Public Citizen sought to clarify why the group believes the commission has the authority to regulate deceptive AI-produced content and specific regulation it wishes to amend. 

Why GOP commissioners are pushing back

During a meeting in June, Republican FEC Commissioners Allen Dickerson, Sean Cooksey and James Trainor III voted to reject Public Citizen's first petition.

The deadlock between three GOP commissioners and three Democratic commissioners — Chairwoman Dara Lindenbaum, Shana Broussard and Ellen Weintraub — blocked it from going forward.

Dickerson said during the meeting that while he supported an FEC request to expand the commission's authority, “The only fraud we’re entitled to police is where an agent of one candidate pretends to be the agent of another, or where a person raises funds by fraudulently claiming to be acting on behalf of the campaign with which he or she is unaffiliated."

“Public Citizen directed its efforts to the wrong component of the government. Instead of coming to us, they should take this up with Congress. I wish it luck,” he added.

Even Lindenbaum, who voted in support of the petition, questioned the panel’s ability to take further action beyond hearing public comment. 

“I also share Commissioner Dickerson’s concerns about whether or not we have any jurisdiction here or the power to do it. I am skeptical that we do, but during the process I hope that we get some ... ideas that may help us or help Congress,” Lindenbaum said. 

Can the FEC crack down on AI?

Former FEC Commissioner Ann Ravel, an Obama appointee who served from 2013-17, said the commission has the power to clarify rules for AI.

Although the technology under consideration is newer, considering fraudulent misrepresentation is “not out of the scope of the commission,” she said. 

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Gilbert said Public Citizen is using a “straightforward regulation” to push the FEC to address the use of AI in campaigns.

"What we're talking about is a new medium that can quickly create that type of misrepresentation and the FEC should interpret their existing reg and address it," she said.

She said there are “broader” regulations she would want to see, such as requiring watermarks or clarifications to identify AI, that the FEC does not yet have the authority to put in place.

Ravel said it would have a “significant” impact if the FEC was able to take action on AI — or even attempt to do so — as a tool to influence the companies that are producing it. 

“I know there's a lot of people that think there’s good from it, but a lot of people that are really scared as well. And so having them come out with this, because of the concerns about the electoral process, I think would be a meaningful act on their part, and should be easier than getting a majority of Congress to vote for it,” Ravel said.

Although, she said, the FEC’s deadlock and apparent wait for express authority from Congress is “typical” for the agency given the 3-3 partisan split and need for four votes to take action. 

Loge also cautioned that as regulators and lawmakers weigh AI rules, they should be wary of viewing the debate in “technological extremes.” 

“This is neither the end of the world, nor is it going to lead to a utopia full of puppies and rainbows. Emerging technology tends to be a bit more complicated, and tends not to have the extreme benefits or downfalls that people hope for or fear,” he said. 

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) became the latest Republican to announce his candidacy earlier this week, joining a crowded field that includes businessman Bernie Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R).

Brown, a third-term incumbent, is seen as one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection next year, and the race could be key to deciding which party wins control of the upper chamber in the 2024 election.

“It's going to be a dogfight to defeat Sherrod Brown. I don’t think anybody would say anything otherwise. If they did, they don’t know Ohio,” said one GOP strategist in the state who’s backing LaRose. “Whoever the nominee is, is going to have to run an A-plus campaign.”

Dolan ran for Ohio’s other Senate seat in the midterms last year but lost in the GOP primary to Trump-endorsed Republican JD Vance, who went on to win the general election. Dolan was the first to get in the 2024 race with the hopes of challenging Brown, followed by Moreno — who also lodged a bid for the open Senate seat in the midterms but eventually dropped out of the crowded Republican primary. 

This time around, Moreno has Vance’s endorsement. LaRose, the newest addition to the race, is the only one of the three who has won a statewide election. His role as secretary of state has upped his name recognition among many Ohio voters, but he’s also facing scrutiny related to a controversial ballot initiative in the state’s August special election.

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates Brown’s seat as a “toss-up,” along with those held by Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D).

Former President Obama won Ohio in 2008 and 2012, while Trump won in 2016 and 2020, when he took the state by 8 points. Vance won the state by 6 points during the midterms against then-Rep. Tim Ryan (D).

“Ohio will be even redder than it was this last cycle, so Sherrod Brown is in deep trouble. This is why you have a crowded field,” said Ohio-based GOP strategist Mark Weaver, who also predicted the primary race will be fairly close between the Republican candidates. 

“The primary will be more interesting than the general, although the general will be making some noise,” Weaver said. “But because Ohio is reliably red, because Sherrod Brown is uniquely weak, this is an easy Republican pickup with the right candidate. So the primary will be far more important than the general as far as national impact.”

Still, Democrats are projecting a show of confidence. State party spokesperson Reeves Oyster said in a statement after LaRose’s announcement Monday that “the Republican ‘slugfest’ for Ohio’s Senate seat is shaping up to be another long, contentious battle that will leave whoever emerges damaged in the eyes of Ohio voters.”  

Ohio GOP spokesman Dan Lusheck fired back, saying the state’s Democrats "are so weak and have lost so many elections, that they would be lucky to even find two quality candidates to run against each other. Thankfully, Ohio Republicans do not have that problem."

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Brown has a long-standing presence in the state. The Democrat incumbent has served in the Senate since 2007 and held LaRose’s position as Ohio secretary of state in the 1980s and early 1990s. Brown secured reelection in 2018 by nearly 7 points over then-Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio).

“At the 10,000-foot level, I think it’s Sherrod Brown’s first time he’s really gonna be in trouble,” said GOP pollster Robert Blizzard. He said the sitting senator is a strong competitor but has benefited from “a national environment that has been tilted more toward Democrats” in his previous statewide races.

“Brown is probably the most vulnerable Democrat incumbent in the country,” Blizzard said. He also highlighted Ohio is “in many ways, gonna be ground zero for winning the Senate majority this cycle.”

The pollster argued the senator has moved further left over the years, while his state appears to be shifting to the right. He predicted the eventual Republican presidential nominee will win Ohio in 2024, making it “very difficult for there to be any kind of coattail effect” for Brown. 

“Whoever wins the primary, I mean — [for] Sherrod Brown, it’s going to be his toughest reelection,” said former Ohio Democratic Party chairman David Pepper. 

But Pepper shrugged off the newest entrant to the race, comparing LaRose to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who launched a bid for the White House in late May, well after Trump kicked off his campaign in November. He argued LaRose has “taken so long to announce” he’s allowed the other candidates to “get in front of him.” 

“It reminds me of the DeSantis run-up, where he waited a long time. Other people have sort of outmaneuvered him, and now I think are positioned to take up the lanes that are the big ones, and I just don't see where LaRose fits in,” Pepper said.

The GOP strategist backing LaRose suggested all three Republicans in the Ohio Senate ring could win in November, but he forecasted LaRose is “the one that, I think, Sherrod Brown fears the most.” 

Weaver, the other strategist, also forecasted LaRose could be the front-runner, but said the secretary of state will need to keep up with Dolan and Moreno’s ability to self-fund and said he’s not far in front of his competitors.

“Bernie, Matt and Frank all have somewhat of a blank canvas. There's still room for them to paint — LaRose being in the best position in that regard — but all of them have a lot of canvas left to paint,” Weaver said.

Blizzard, on the other hand, said Dolan will likely lead the field, noting LaRose “has never been in a competitive primary situation before” and that Moreno dropped out during his last effort.

Ahead of Moreno’s announcement, Trump praised Moreno in an April post on Truth Social as a “highly respected businessman,” saying “he would not be easy to beat, especially against Brown.” 

Before LaRose had officially entered the race, the elections forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball said, “We wouldn’t describe any of the potential Republican Senate nominees in Ohio as slam dunk candidates, but any of them would be capable of winning a Toss-up race.”

The Ohio GOP said LaRose, Dolan and Moreno “are all strong conservatives committed to challenging Biden’s failed policies that have hurt everyday Ohioans.” 

"Republican voters deserve a robust, thoughtful primary where they can decide which candidate is best suited to end career politician Sherrod Brown's time in office,” said Ohio GOP chairman Alex Triantafilou.

But the Ohio Democrats said in a Tuesday release that “a long, brutal, and expensive primary is taking shape in Ohio and no matter who emerges, they will have spent months focused on infighting — instead of fighting for Ohioans — leaving them bruised and badly damaged entering the general election.”

The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), told CBS News last week that his group, which has weighed in on GOP primaries in other states, plans to stay neutral in the Ohio race. 

Pepper, the former Ohio Democratic Party chairman, said he thinks Brown still has a path to victory but that the incumbent shouldn’t take anything for granted.

“I think that next year is going to be a really fierce general election,” he said.

Former President Trump on Tuesday railed against a Justice Department investigation into his efforts to remain in power after losing the 2020 election, hours after he said he was a target of the probe.

Trump, in his first on-camera comments on the investigation, told Fox News’s Sean Hannity during a town hall in Iowa that he was bothered by the timing of the notification. He went on to repeat his claims that he is being targeted because of his standing in the GOP presidential primary race.

“It bothers me. It bothers me for everybody in this incredible, sold-out audience, and it bothers you,” the former president said in front of the overwhelmingly pro-Trump crowd.

“I got the letter on Sunday night. Think of it. I don’t think they’ve ever sent a letter on Sunday night,” Trump continued. “And they’re in a rush, because they want to interfere. It’s interference with the election. It’s election interference. Never been done like this in the history of our country, and it’s a disgrace.”

Trump complained that the Department of Justice “has become a weapon for Democrats,” and he blasted special counsel Jack Smith as a “deranged” prosecutor. Smith is overseeing the investigations into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, as well as Trump’s handling of classified documents after leaving office.

Trump said Tuesday morning on Truth Social that he was alerted he is a target of the Justice Department’s investigation focusing on his efforts to stay in power after losing the 2020 election, which culminated in the riots at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Receiving a target letter is often a sign someone could soon face charges in a matter where prosecutors have gathered substantial evidence. It’s unclear what specific charges Trump could face if prosecutors decide to move ahead.

Trump pursued a multi-pronged plan to remain in office, pressuring the Justice Department and state officials about claims of election fraud, ultimately rallying his supporters on Jan. 6 and urging them to march to the Capitol before rioters ransacked the complex in an effort to halt the certification process.

Separately, Michigan’s attorney general Tuesday charged 16 "fake electors" for their alleged roles in a plot to overturn the 2020 presidential election. 

Hannity also invited Trump on Tuesday to air grievances about the Biden administration and the state of the country, including the border, foreign policy and a recent controversy over a bag of cocaine found near where visitors enter for tours of the West Wing.

When Hannity prodded Trump to advocate for Republicans voting early, the former president said he would support the effort, but cautioned that even early voting with paper ballots can be subject to fraud.

"We have very corrupt elections, we have no borders," Trump said. "If you don’t have borders and you don’t have good elections, you don’t have a country."

President Biden is using clips from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) Turning Point USA speech — intended to attack the president on policy issues — to tout his legislative accomplishments in a video released Tuesday.

The video features Greene's speech set to uplifting music as she lists Biden’s agenda and legislative achievements and compares him to Presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and Franklin D. Roosevelt.

“Joe Biden had the largest public investment in social infrastructure and environmental programs, that is actually finishing what FDR started, that LBJ expanded on, and Joe Biden is attempting to complete,” Greene said in her speech over the weekend.

“Programs to address education, medical care, urban problems, rural poverty, transportation, Medicare, Medicaid, labor unions, and he still is working on it,” Greene said.

Biden’s policy positions have been largely popular throughout the country, but he has struggled to communicate his agenda and legislative achievements to voters, who often say Biden has not accomplished much. His overall approval rating also has not reflected the approval that many of his policies receive.

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Many have shared Greene's speech at the conservative conference and described it as a gift to Biden’s campaign.

Biden tweeted the video and wrote, “I approve this message.”