Conventional thinking suggests that under no circumstances would President Joe Biden consider, let alone offer, former President Trump a pardon for the charges in his June 9 indictment.  No one has made the suggestion. Neither side has suggested that a pardon is even a remote possibility. And the left wing of the Democratic Party would lambaste Biden for offering it. 

Yet it would be smart politics for President Biden to offer a pardon and for President Trump to graciously accept it.  Here are nine political reasons why Biden should offer the pardon. 

First, historical precedence in the aftermath of Watergate suggests that a pardon would be the best outcome for the nation. On August 9, 1974, President Nixon resigned the presidency in the wake of Watergate. On September 8, President Gerald Ford pardoned him. The gesture curtailed the acrimony over continued Watergate fallout and started the process of moving on. Though Nixon felt he was innocent of criminal conduct and should not have to accept a pardon, the pardon ended his legal jeopardy and allowed him to acknowledge he should have handled the situation better. In either case, a humbling yet gracious lifeline allowed America to move forward. 

Second, it is historically unprecedented for an American president to prosecute his likely opponent. The U.S. has had six presidential election rematches, including the John Quincy Adams-Andrew Jackson rematch of an alleged stolen election.  Regardless of personal belief over the legitimacy of the indictment, the action itself is unprecedented. Republicans are sure to, and should, use this indictment against Biden to show a weak, and continuously weakening president trying to use his power to slant an election. A pardon takes away this talking point, as Biden would be using his official pardon power to avoid handicapping his likely opposition. 

Third, Biden would appear magnanimous. As a candidate, the Biden camp tried to paint him as “looking Presidential” and restoring norms. Reality has painted a different picture. From his underwater approval ratings (net -14), weakness among independent voters, and video clips that routinely show confusion, Biden has failed to live up to the image his campaign wanted to project. But a pardon would be a shockingly magnanimous gesture, shoring up any such image problem. 

Fourth, Biden has his own classified documents problem.  He’s had documents in his University of Pennsylvania office and classified documents in his garage near his Corvette.  Offering a pardon minimizes the accusations of double standards at play. 

Fifth, Americans are rightfully concerned about the overreach of federal agencies in political matters.  Expect President Trump to vigorously defend himself with accusations of political motivations at trial.  While it may or may not help at trial, it will work as a political tactic with the electorate. 

Sixth, in the Art of the Deal, Trump discussed the antitrust suit his USFL brought against the NFL and specifically mentioned how important it was that the NFL, on a daily basis, gave interviews to win in the court of public opinion.  President Trump will use every day, in the run up to trial and at trial, to rail against the corruption of Biden and his DOJ and FBI.  By offering a pardon, and not providing Trump with the spotlight of a trial, President Biden would take away Trump’s ability to demonstrate how unfairly, without precedent, he has been treated.  By offering a pardon, President Biden would take away Trump’s most significant campaign opportunity- his trial. 

Seventh, the converse of President Biden looking magnanimous in offering the pardon is that Trump would potentially look weak.  Innocent men do not need pardons; the pardon is a lifeline; and so on.  It is the same concern that Nixon expressed during his month of purgatory after resigning: the pardon would make him look guilty when he wanted public exoneration. Accepting a pardon would be the logical and rational decision for Trump, but Democrats can spin it to say that Trump needed Biden’s generous pardon to avoid a certain conviction and imprisonment. 

Eighth, Trump might moot the issue by declining the pardon. Trump is a fighter. He will want to vindicate himself in both a court of law and the court of public opinion.  He might see a pardon as denying him that opportunity, making it very difficult for him to accept the pardon. By offering the pardon, knowing full well that it might not be accepted by Trump, Biden puts Trump in the difficult position of either losing his chance at public vindication due to the generosity of his opponent, or risking a trial and conviction after a way out had been offered. In this sense, offering a pardon is a no-risk proposition for Biden.  

Ninth and last, the progressive wing of the Democratic party has spent years trying to destroy Trump, and they have been beaten each time. The progressive wing would be furious if Trump escaped their clutches because Trump was pardoned. But Biden’s polling with independents is deeply underwater, and these swing voters are also polling at a net minus-55 points on the question of whether the nation is on the right or the wrong track. Offering a pardon, knowing how deeply unpopular the move would be with progressives, would demonstrate that Biden is not beholden to that wing of his party.  Alternatively, failing to offer a pardon would be further proof that he is beholden to the most extreme voices in the Democratic Party and bog him down even further with independents.  

Biden is in a very weak position politically and, this late in his term, it is quite difficult to see how that could be reversed. Offering Trump a pardon would be a counterintuitive move that might change many voters’ opinions of him. Biden’s polls say that America is headed in the wrong direction, but a pardon of Trump could be the U-turn he needs.